Tuesday, November 27, 2007
More Confounding Variables than I Wanted
I flew into White Plains this morning. The view was nearly breathtaking. What foliage was not on the trees was still on the ground around them. It was so gorgeous.
I. Could. Not. Wait. To. Run.
After catching up on statistics and heading into new territories (ANOVA, ANCOVA, confounders, co-variates, dependent and independent variables....) I was absolutely thrilled that we finished for the day at 4:30pm. I had about 20 minutes before the sun went down. It was still beautiful. I raced back to my room with hope. Maybe I could do a couple of hills on the golf course before it gets dark.
But, again, it was not to be. No bag in my room. No shoes, no workout clothes, no nothin. I phoned the bellman to be sure, then checked the baggage claim website. The sun was just as sad as I was as it was setting over this gorgeous landscape and I read, "unfortunately we have not yet located your bag. However, we do have it on a priority trace. We are sorry for any inconvenience this has caused."
One of many lessons today:
aFailing to take a confounding variable into account can lead to a false conclusion.
Editor's Note: 12:23am. IT's FINALLY HERE. Hoping to get up bright and early and hit the trail :D
# posted by Non-Runner Nancy @ 3:52 PM 
Comments:
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there is nothing so graceful as the application of statistical terminology to real life.
I hope your evening improves or you get to go home soon.
I hope your evening improves or you get to go home soon.
ROFLMAO Wendy!!!
Awwwhhhhh Nancy, that just stinky, stink, stinks!! At least have yourself a nice cocktail (or 5 . . .what? the kids aren't around LOL)
Awwwhhhhh Nancy, that just stinky, stink, stinks!! At least have yourself a nice cocktail (or 5 . . .what? the kids aren't around LOL)
I love talking about confounders and effect modifiers, but not when it's about running. Mediators, anyone?
Hope it comes soon so you can run!
Hope it comes soon so you can run!
Oh the memories statistics bring back. I took calculus based stats 1 & 2. It was some of the hardest stuff I did during my undergrad. Enjoy!
At least the probability of your bag showing up is getting larger every minute. Unfortunately, I don't think the limit approaches 1.
At least the probability of your bag showing up is getting larger every minute. Unfortunately, I don't think the limit approaches 1.
Good god,no luggage? That bites. Big time.
I'll try to get some miles in for both of us on Thursday.
Hang in there...
I'll try to get some miles in for both of us on Thursday.
Hang in there...
Gahhhhhh!!!
Hey, I'm currently a Six Sigma Green Belt (does that mean anything to you?) and in my early career days did data analysis as a full time job. You're speaking my language with that stats stuff!!!!!!!
Hey, I'm currently a Six Sigma Green Belt (does that mean anything to you?) and in my early career days did data analysis as a full time job. You're speaking my language with that stats stuff!!!!!!!
that sucks..! look at the brights side.. you got so many of us remembering that stat and probability course we took..
Oh that just plain sucks. I'm sorry. Make all attempts to talk to a real person on the phone. I once received that automated message for 3 days straight until I spoke to someone and tada my bag appears 2 hours later. go figure.
That does suck...that you have to take a statistics class, I mean. You got your luggage back, but those hours you spend in that class, those you'll never get back.
Can't wait until the 8th!
Can't wait until the 8th!
Hi Nancy! I'm so glad that you were able to verify my claim that the fall folliage in NYC this week is absolutely stunning. Hope you had a good run now that they've finally located your bags. It was a little chilly out there today, but all the beautiful colors of autumn out on the road really makes it all worthwhile. Hope you got to enjoy the scenery.
P.S. All the stats terminology brings me back to my board exam two weeks ago that included quite a bit of stats: Pearson's coefficients, linear regression...urrrggh, hopefully I did well enough to know have to think about those terms for at least a few more years!
P.S. All the stats terminology brings me back to my board exam two weeks ago that included quite a bit of stats: Pearson's coefficients, linear regression...urrrggh, hopefully I did well enough to know have to think about those terms for at least a few more years!
Runner, a quick trip to the store... is there anything close? buy something cheap...
I have been doing statistical functions too for running... quite funny..
lizzie
I have been doing statistical functions too for running... quite funny..
lizzie
I know all about the lost baggage thing and even had mine lost before the Myrtle Beach Marathon last year:-(
But I'm glad to hear that you gfinally got your stuff and can go run in that beautiful fall foliage. All that stats stuff?? You lost me at (.. I had some of that stuff in college, but wasn't ever good at it.
Sending you good vibes from Michigan.
But I'm glad to hear that you gfinally got your stuff and can go run in that beautiful fall foliage. All that stats stuff?? You lost me at (.. I had some of that stuff in college, but wasn't ever good at it.
Sending you good vibes from Michigan.
omg. i failed statistics and logic. and probability too ... was that part of it? so that lesson you learned today about confounding variables blahblahblahblah - that went right over my head. but i got the part about missing your run. that sucks.
I have no clue what you're talking about when it comes to that kind of language! But I do understand not being able to run, especially when you are so ready. Hopefully you get out there SOON!
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